Page 90 - Le Operazioni Interforze e Multinazionali nella Storia Militare - ACTA Tomo II

730 XXXIX Congresso della CommIssIone InternazIonale dI storIa mIlItare • CIHm

Part V
Five Strategic Shifts: At present, there are 5 strategic shifts that shape the environment
for NATO SOF and its strategic integration:
1) NATO’s Geographic Range
NATO, at the policy level, has undertaken a major shift in its area of responsibility. It has
redefined its geographic range, moving away from its defensive posture on the continent
of Europe, to a more proactive global structure, stating that threats to Europe must be
confronted at their origination, regardless of continent.
2) NATO’s Military Scope
In close relation to this change, NATO’s core mission, to protect the nearly 1 billion
citizens of NATO countries, is now said to require a different sort of approach to new
threats, which are likely to be asymmetric and international in form, rather than conven-
tional military action across land. This awareness has led NATO to adjust its military
scope, and even its purpose.
3) Afghanistan as Shared Framework
NATO SOF service in Afghanistan has become its common framework and its shared
experience. Each and every nation of NATO has contributed SOF forces. It is the only
conflict that has drawn universal participation. These forces, now highly integrated, with
exceptional capabilities, are beginning to disperse, as the Afghanistan war draws to a
close, and all NATO nations have withdrawn, or are withdrawing. However, their cur-
rent ties remain very close.

4) Redeployments
The near-term is highly certain. In the post-2014 environment, will there be a significant
role for NATO SOF? Current conflicts in Libya, Syria, Mali, and Egypt each present a
potential role for NATO SOF. Or, if NATO policymakers choose not to deploy these
forces to these areas, will NATO SOF largely reverse to disaggregated national forces,
largely ending the process of strategic integration, and even undoing its efforts over the
last decade?

5) Preventive Interventions
Will NATO SOF develop a new role? It is considering deeper efforts in preventive inter-
vention, to reduce the sway of violent ideologies. NATO SOF is currently considering
changes to its mission set, to consider much greater attention to Phase 0 and Phase 1 ac-
tivities. This objective would, of course, require significant new options and approaches
that beyond kinetic activity, and in a time of diminished resources, may not be politically
viable.

VI. Conclusion: Ambiguity Between Peace and War
These five shifts, and the corollary questions, will determine whether strategic integra-
tion continues, or reverses. Either direction is equally possible at present; staying in